Borderless Comments (Public Skype Chat)

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The Skype Conversation

Hudson Barton: 2009-01-03 13:52:07: How Depressed Are VOIP's Visionaries? http://aaytch.posterous.com/how-depressed-are-voips-vision
Hudson Barton: 2009-01-02 14:34:23: http://is.gd/epgl
Hudson Barton: 2009-01-02 13:28:56: Predictions for Skype growth in 2009:

http://aaytch.posterous.com/
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 12:55:20: Switching subjects... how about this amazing story? Palm raises $100 million from Elevation Partners. Gluttons for punishment? Incredible. http://blogs.mercurynews.com/…/palm-raises-another-100-million-fr&hellip/
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 12:53:13: Absolutely.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-23 12:51:29: Talking about SSD, maybe this will change the market demand: http://tinyurl.com/7gfe48
Julian Bond: 2008-12-23 12:42:28: Personally, I think there is a market for a high powered netbook. But I'm not sure what the real compromises would be. Interesting that the market doesn't actually want SSD. Or a toy keyboard. But they do appear to want XP, small, light, cheap.
Julian Bond: 2008-12-23 12:39:56: But right now Intel can't make 1.6Ghz single core Atoms fast enough.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 12:39:38: right.
Julian Bond: 2008-12-23 12:39:28: There has been talk of a dual core Atom. Which sounds like that.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 12:38:51: I seem to recall that there is a new processor coming from Intel in 2009 that will be as powerful as a duo-core but with much better efficiency. Perhaps that is what Apple is waiting for. Can't remember the name of the processor.
Julian Bond: 2008-12-23 12:34:16: "Jim Courtney says: I keep looking for netbooks with duo core processors - required for High Quality Video."
It's just never enough is it! Maybe Apple will do it for you. So is there a markket for a high powered laptop in a 10.1" form factor. And no battery life?
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-23 10:31:00: blackberry bold just named #1 influential biztech product of 2008 http://poprl.com/9X4
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-23 10:29:23: I keep looking for netbooks with duo core processors - required for High Quality Video.
Julian Bond: 2008-12-23 08:08:10: Do all netbooks come with Skype?
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-23 04:31:57: oh, Canada! I keep forgetting it's not part of the US
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 01:39:42: I was just trying to count the factors that might have contributed to a very good year. Trying not to pay attention to the official reasons.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-23 01:37:04: ... and lets me know everytime she does a Skype interview.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-23 01:36:07: Sorry, Phil, she's on CTV in Canada. My wife watches it almost daily.
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-23 01:28:45: Oprah had an impact in the US, but not beyond.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 01:01:37: Could Oprah have been the cause of Skype's fast growth in 2008?
Julian Bond: 2008-12-22 11:28:40: Internet comms do tend to route round breaks like the Undersea cable problem. But latency can go up dramatically. I'd expect skype chat to get through eventually, but skype voice might be unusable
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-21 16:24:37: however i think pat was just looking at the gross popularity of the brands. and skype is a mainstream brand the public knows. the rest are niche specialty brands.
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-21 16:23:26: when you're looking at web site popularity, jajah's stats are misleading. 90 percent of their business is OEM/white label. so you'd have to throw in yahoo messenger etc. i've no idea how website popularity correllates with software/service popularity.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-21 13:10:43: How can someone post a story that proposes to answer the question "How popular is Skype, really", and then offer Alexa rankings for support for the point of view. http://patphelan.net/how-popular-is-skype-really/

At the very least, it is an over-hyped title. He hasn't even answered his own question. His only conclusion is that he is even more stumped than before he asked it.
Bill Campbell: 2008-12-21 05:10:06: Hudson, can they see the history
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-21 03:12:57: The topic of this discussion is above. If you are interested, please don't leave.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-21 03:11:41: hello back
Witek Bahr: 2008-12-20 22:15:47: hello
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-20 14:05:04: Mediterranean undersea cables get cut. Communications in Asia and Middle East severely "disrupted". http://www.panarmenian.net/…/?nid=28085 I assume the Skype cloud will bypass these troubles.
jbond-eeepc: 2008-12-16 14:30:58: hmm. that one worked. BTW this is Julian.bond testing 4b3 on an eeepsie
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-16 14:15:45: Welcome eeepc !!
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-16 13:27:02: You should post this in the Skype 4.x discussion group. Reinforces Dan's post last week.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-16 12:58:24: Businesses double adoption of Macs.
http://www.macnn.com/…/mac.business.integration/

As the article says, there has been a 2x increase, in just the past 8 months, of businesses that allow Macs to populate their internal networks. It seems to me that the switchover from PC to Mac has come to a place where the pace is quickening.

This has implications for anyone supporting both platforms... like Skype.
Julian Bond: 2008-12-15 15:39:32: It's also possible that XP had throttled it because it was running on batteries. I haven't got to the bottom of how or if it does that in Windows yet.
Julian Bond: 2008-12-15 15:38:39: Had I booted the eeePC into Linux it might have worked better.
Julian Bond: 2008-12-15 15:37:57: same old, same old. The device you can buy now is never quite good enough.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-15 15:36:47: I'm waiting for the NetBook that has dual core processor; then a NetBook can become a light, small footprint, true multi-conversation device using Skype's full feature set.
Julian Bond: 2008-12-15 15:21:46: I bought (or had bought for me) the eeePC just a little too early in May this year. They still had a 900Mhz Celeron then. Since then the netbooks have all evolved up to 1.6Ghz Atom. I think that's still a single core cpu and not that powerful by 2008 standards.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-15 15:06:33: A key question here: does the eeePC have a dual core processor. This has been the limitation of some netbooks.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-15 12:50:39: Yes. When I called you the audio and the video was crap. Unfortunately, I did not have a tech window booted, so I can't provide any further diagnosis.

Sidebar: I suspect with a decent computer, a skype account, a good webcam and the ability to steal a wifi connection (in a city perhaps), that non-professional on-location video journalists can compete with professionals. The key unknown is the reliability and capability of broadband.
Julian Bond: 2008-12-15 12:24:35: I was at a demo in London (against a Motorcycle Parking Tax) and had my eeePC with me. It's a 900 Celeron running XP. I thought I'd try a Skype video call using "found" wifi. It didn't really work. First I made the mistake of using my normal Skype account and the machine took a good 25 minutes to catch up after signing in. Second I think the hardware is really marginal for XP, Skype 3.8 4Win and video. And third, I know the built in microphone is rubbish. Oh well. I also had a megaphone with me that has been modified to accept an input jack. One of these days I really want to do a remote skype call to a public event and into the Megaphone.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-15 12:00:29
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-14 11:47:17: tried to call you. Perhaps you are already on a call.
Julian Bond: 2008-12-14 11:44:13: give me a call now
Julian Bond: 2008-12-14 11:36:36: anyone with a camera online?
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-08 18:14:35: No opinion, really. But if people are not online then they won't be using their minutes. Basically Phil, what I think happens at this time of year is a huge decrease in at-work presence that is partially offset by relative strength in at-home presence. The shifts will be no different than what we see on weekends during the rest of the year. I do measure the weekday/weekend delta carefully, and I've written about it before.

Skype does not give us minutes correleted to time of day, day of week, or season of year. If there were a surge in minutes associated with Christmas, how would any of us know it?
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-08 18:00:32: don't you expect minutes-consumed to go up for end-of-year?
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-08 15:35:24: Notwithstanding stupid reports like this, the holidays are not a time of Skype growth. See http://voip-phone-systems.tmcnet.com/…/46919-voip-shortens-distance-betwe&hellip

Growth has slowed dramatically in the past week and it will stall completely very soon. Expect it to come back strongly in the first week of the new year.
Neil: 2008-12-08 02:30:44: kinda like Xerox
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-08 02:21:15: I did it! I just said to someone "I'd rather discuss this on the skype." It seemed quite natural. Now for me the name of the device is the same as the verb for what you do with the device, which is the same as the name of the software that powers the device as well as the name of the company that makes the software.

No more silly phrases like "skype phone", or "skype device", or "skype instant messenger"
York, Dan: 2008-12-05 19:36:43: Julian - you can always try http://www.bugmenot.com for login credentials for the site.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-05 19:08:28: Just to feed on Hudson's privacy concerns: smile when you go through airport security: http://www.itbusiness.ca/…/News.asp?id=51059
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-05 18:43:00: ye olde rubber duck for your identity
Julian Bond: 2008-12-05 18:41:43: I should do it really. As the FT is a good source.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-05 18:35:52: I can confirm it's only a log-in wall. Just uncheck all the email requests as you register.
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-05 18:16:17: it's a log-in wall, really.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-05 17:56:40: not a pay wall for me. So FT charges Brits
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-05 17:17:18: http://csc.com.au/…/333.shtml for the source materials
Julian Bond: 2008-12-05 17:03:01: Sorry, but I don't read articles behind a pay wall...
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-05 16:13:52: i don't think it will end, just be so expensive as to be beyond the reach of most mortals
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-05 13:35:20: Lively imaginations: 'Privacy will end in 2013' ... gleanings from CSC Digital Disruptions Report http://www.ft.com/…/acd2c66c-c0da-11dd-b0a8-000077b076&hellip?nclick_check=1
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-04 17:47:59: vonj or vong
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-04 17:45:40: spyke
Julian Bond: 2008-12-04 17:33:00: Or a JeeJah
Julian Bond: 2008-12-04 17:31:36: Like, a, "Skypple"
Julian Bond: 2008-12-04 17:31:13: I think a dedicated Skype phone needs a suitably SciFi name like something out of a Phil Dick novel.
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-04 16:37:47: ooh. interesting.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-04 13:58:37: Meaning of the word "Skype"

1. It is the name of a company (subsidiary of eBay)
2. It is the name of a software program
3. It is a verb meaning to communicate with someone using the software program of the same name.

Proposed new meaning: the name of a dedicated communication device that uses the software of the same name. This would eliminate awkward expressions like "skype phone". Instead, we would call this device simply a "Skype", just like we call a telephoning device a "Phone".
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-04 13:51:30
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-04 13:35:44: Off topic. ECommerce is having a really good Xmas season. Focus on eBay and Amazon http://tinyurl.com/63gfhe.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:42:57: More from the Press Release: Despite the impact of later product launch dates and general economic weakness in the United States, customer response to the new BlackBerry products launched this quarter has been exceptional and RIM has experienced particularly strong momentum in recent weeks. Daily net subscriber account additions reached a record level on the day the BlackBerry Storm launched in the United States and RIM achieved a record number of weekly net subscriber account additions during the last week of the third quarter. The strong demand for new products has continued into Q4 and RIM is working closely with its partners to deliver sufficient product to take advantage of the growth opportunity in Q4 and beyond.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:41:53: Biggest problem was lack of Bold and Storm in U.S. until November. The impact of the current economy on the C$/US$ was not a help either (C$ dropped about 20% during the quarter due to high demand for US$ everywhere as investments cash out.)
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:40:11: Based on preliminary financial data, RIM expects revenue for the third quarter to be in the range of $2.75-$2.78 billion. Preliminary revenue is lower than the previously forecasted revenue range of $2.95-$3.10 billion but is approximately 65% higher than revenue in the same quarter of last year. Approximately one third of the difference between forecasted and preliminary revenue is expected to be a result of the depreciation of certain foreign currencies relative to the U.S. dollar in the quarter. The remaining difference is primarily due to lower than estimated unit shipments of existing products, which RIM believes is a reflection of general economic weakness in the United States and shifts in product launch dates within the quarter. Subject to final review, gross margin in the quarter is expected to be between 45-46%. The lower than expected gross margin is due primarily to product revenue mix and foreign exchange impacts within the quarter.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:40:07: From RIM's press release yesterday:
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 14:34:47: I have no idea where you see such activity. The rate of increase has been strong since Labor Day. If anything, it begins to drop off after Thanksgiving, goes dead the week before Christmas, and then picks up strongly in the first week of the new year.
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-03 14:23:29: not causal, but skype activity - via simultaneous online stats - seems to rise sharply in the last 45 days of the year. i can only guess at three causes: family coordination of holiday visits (starting early because of the US Thanksgiving), end-of-year selling efforts, and college students coming home and bringing their families online.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:21:54: But, on the security front, Certicom, a Mississauga-based company, has been supplying cryptographic technology for BlackBerry since day 1. RIM obviously has not run out of cash: http://tinyurl.com/5n3wmz
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:19:44: Just found that RIM reduced guidance for their third quarter yesterday.
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-03 14:19:15: I agree about skype downloads and the economy. phone bills are one of our largest discretionary spends and newspaper columns have been suggesting skype as an alternative. skype's US PR machine is pushing that hard.
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-12-03 14:16:55: RIM also has government enterprise going for it. Barack Obama used one on the campaign trail and they are slowly weaning him off it since, once president, all his personal emails become public record.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 12:53:35: Sidebar: Jean Mercier at http://www.skypenumerology.blogspot.com/ is saying that Skype downloads are rising very fast. I can confirm that and my guess is that it is related to the economy, but it could be just a statistical blip.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 12:51:12: I guess the rumor is that Palm's financial angel (Elevation ?) has run out of patience, and maybe of money.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 12:48:30: With a 2.5:1 Current ratio, RIM is also in good shape. They did some good strategic financings a few years ago that raised significant funds. At one point Palm's CEO was up here right after a RIM financing -- she had about $100MM in cash while RIM was close to $1B as a result of the financing. That was my first indication that Palm was in trouble...
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 12:44:46: How do these companies compare in terms of cash reserves and debt/equity ratios? Apple is in good shape here, and Palm is clearly in bad shape, but what about the others? Let's hypothesize the worse.... very long and very deep depression.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 12:41:02: RIM will be reporting their 2009 third quarter (ending Nov. 30) earnings December 18.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 12:37:46: The smartphone survivors will be Apple, RIM and Nokia. Cisco is apparently eating up the market for VoIP fixed line phonesets in business, according to one report I saw. Qualcomm will continue to collect royalties. Motorola, Nortel and Palm are the big question marks.
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 12:35:08: Q-2009 is going to be the real test of where the smartphone market is going. Post-Christmas, and it will be the first full quarter of iPhone, Bold and Storm. Too bad Nokia's N97 won't be out until June (29 according to one tweet I saw).
Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 12:32:14: RIM's big problem is the loss of their "embedded" customers with all the downsizing and shutdowns of financial institutions. That was the market that launched them; it's a huge upgrade market loss. They have been quietly working the enterprise market in coordination with all their launches.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 12:26:17: Looks like RIM is under pressure. They say it's a combination of value of the dollar, the general economy, and Apple. PALM is of course having an even harder time.

This morning's market report: "Research In Motion (RIMM: 37.32, -2.48, -6.2%) fell 4% in Frankfurt as the maker of BlackBerry phones cut its third-quarter earnings and revenue goals."

Does anyone have opinions on the ability of various members of the mobile telecom group to survive a worldwide economic depression? Nokia? Palm? Motorola? Cisco? Ericsson? Nortel? Qualcomm? Alcatel? ... and now I suppose Apple? I suspect they will all lose money in the days ahead. The question is which of them cannot afford to lose money.
Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 08:56:49: nice thing about a published chat... people tend to self-regulate.
Neil: 2008-12-03 08:15:01: the 2 participants removed their own private chat from here
Julian Bond: 2008-12-03 08:10:23: wonders what happened there overnight (will this message be removed?)
wildbel: 2008-12-03 01:05:48: sorry
Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 01:05:26
wildbel: 2008-12-03 01:03:31
Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 01:02:52
wildbel: 2008-12-03 01:02:31
wildbel: 2008-12-03 01:02:01
wildbel: 2008-12-03 01:01:58
Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 01:00:37
wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:59:37: that was meano
wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:59:36
Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 00:59:03
wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:58:27
wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:58:21: I AGREE!
Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 00:58:08
wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:57:42
Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 00:53:57
wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:45:50: don't mind them, people are here
Neil: 2008-12-03 00:14:10: whatever
Tane Bufton: 2008-12-03 00:13:43: Chickens?
Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 00:13:40
Neil: 2008-12-03 00:13:24: no one here but us chickens
Tane Bufton: 2008-12-03 00:12:34: anyone there?
Tane Bufton: 2008-12-03 00:10:46: hi
Вадим Супоницкий: 2008-11-27 17:30:50: sorry for my English
Вадим Супоницкий: 2008-11-27 17:30:38: Bill do you have web cam? How we can have video talk start?
Bill Campbell: 2008-11-27 17:29:51: I can
Вадим Супоницкий: 2008-11-27 17:29:31: Who can help me test my skype video?
Вадим Супоницкий: 2008-11-27 17:29:09: hello!
Bill Campbell: 2008-11-27 00:03:20: Kelly this link goes with this Chat
http://glimfeather.com/…/garnet_stone-3.html
Bill Campbell: 2008-11-27 00:02:30: Ping for Kelly
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-11-24 16:52:38: sounds right.
Hudson Barton: 2008-11-24 16:42:08: The trough occurs after the Asian peak and before the Europen day gets rolling) . By looking at the time at which the trough occurs I could determine whether the cause is a broadening of the Asian curve. I have not done that study, but I strongly suspect it is mostly due to a broadening of the American and European curves.... folks in industrialized countries are staying in the Skype cloud around the clock with either computers, mobile devices or proxies such as iScoot.
Hudson Barton: 2008-11-24 16:23:54: In terms of registrations, it may be true, but not in terms of usage
Hudson Barton: 2008-11-24 16:22:51: Everybody keeps saying that, but there is no evidence for it (big Asian growth)
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-11-24 16:17:14: Could the growth in the bottom of the trough be from growth outside the Americas? That activity in the Chinese and Indian time zones is growing rapidly?
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-11-24 16:15:12: That's a gem of analysis, Hudson. Great work.
Hudson Barton: 2008-11-24 13:31:12: The other day in the Skype 4.x public chat, I said: "Skype should be interested in usage, not in "users". "Real user" is a measure of usage. The comment was a partial answer to the question "How much of that growth was from "conversion" or changing online patterns of existing users, and how much of it is new users".

Now here is a geeky analysis that the raw "real users" statistic fails to fully capture.

In 2005 and 2006, the amplitude of the daily usage wave was growing.   That is to say, the daily highs were growing relative to the lows (after discounting regional distortions)... 10% per annum faster in fact. Skype usage was increasing in the middle of the workday relative to off-peak hours. People were not using Skype as a general communication utility for inbound and outbound calling and presence. Rather, they appear to have been using Skype for special work-related purposes like outbound long distance calling to save money.

In 2007 and 2008, trend reversed.   The amplitude of the daily usage wave started shrinking. The lows have been growing relative to the highs... 20% per annum faster. It appears that people began using Skype for normal, essential and basic communication, staying online for longer stretches of time or even around the clock in order to receive inbound calls and to mark their presence.   Although we don't know the precise motivation for this change in behavior, it could be related to the expanding availability of unmetered broadband. Electricity is the only variable cost associated with keeping your Skype device running 24/7.

Today, the peak of the Skype usage wave is at about 14.5 million and the trough is about 7.2 million (out of 36 million total "real users"). The comparable graph for a "phone" company (or a VOIP operator like Vonage) would show a usage wave with an amplitude of zero; all users are by definition online all the time.   If Skype's usage trends continue, it will begin to look more and more like an indispensible communications utility and less like a mere disruption to the communications status quo.
Hudson Barton: 2008-11-13 15:23:46: For those people using "Twitter4Skype", yesterday was a down day. The server is back up again, but to get your twitter feeds running, you may need to reconnect with the server. To do that type "#on" in your Twitter4Skype chat.
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-11-06 06:32:44: I'd be interested in logic that required completed profiles from strangers when i'm in skype me mode.
Jim Courtney: 2008-11-05 17:39:16: But your incentive to complete a profile should be considered, especially to have a mobile number for SMS and to have some idea of at least the country. In fact, maybe there could be an additional "privacy" option to block all contacts who have not completed at least two pieces of profile information, one of which must be Country.
Neil: 2008-11-05 17:30:01: there have been complaints on the forum about SkypeMe having been dropped, but I don't think they will get anywhere
Hudson Barton: 2008-11-05 17:18:25: Yes. I should have mentioned the change in 4.x for Windows. One of my purposes in this experiment was to see whether SkypeMe would be missed. Answer: not at all. I hope it gets removed in the Mac and Linux version as well.
Neil: 2008-11-05 17:05:37: I don't think it was there for 4b1 either
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-11-05 16:55:42: Skype Me is no longer a presence option in 4b2.
Julian Bond: 2008-11-05 16:54:22: "Skype should create incentives for people to fill out their profiles" ++
Hudson Barton: 2008-11-05 13:40:18: Yesterday I tried for the first time to run in SkypeME mode. So for about 24 hours, I removed all my privacy barriers to see what might happen.   Let's just say I won't be doing it again, at least not while the Skype profile can be filled out optionally.

I had expected to receive an influx of unwanted calls from unknown persons.   That did not happen. I got only one unwanted call from an unknown (and zero wanted calls from unknowns). The bigger problem was unwanted IMs.    Before yesterday, I had always set my IMs to receive from unknowns. As a result I had typically received two or three unwanted buddy requests per week (which I then blocked).   This is an acceptable rate for me. It might not be acceptable for most people.

Yesterday while running in "SkypeME" mode, I received almost a dozen; sex solicitations, money solicitations, and an assortment of lonely goofballs who just wanted someone to talk to. Without exception they did not have their profiles filled out.   I had to block every one.

Conclusions:
1. "SkypeME" mode and running Skype without any privacy measures is redundant.   There is no reason for a normal person to go into SkypeME mode, and if there were then it is just as easy to adjust one's preferences.   The "SkypeME" flag is an invitation to disreputable Skype usage.

2. Skype should create incentives for people to fill out their profiles and should create a flag for Skype names that contain verified profile information, especially a full name.
Hudson Barton: 2008-11-05 12:38:06: Two new records, each more significant than "peak users":

1. Skype added 1 million new "real users" in the past 15 days, now exceeding 36 million. That's not quite as fast as in January when it took just a week to go from 28 million to 29 million. http://glimfeather.com/…/RealUsers.htm

2. Based on year-to-date numbers, Skype is probably set to grow faster in 2008 than it did in 2006 when it added new users at a rate of 862,712 per month. There no longer remains any doubt that Skype is NOT slowing down. 2008 YTD: 870,318 new "real users" per month.

Ho Hum.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-23 18:06:52: Save the World. Buy a Mac. http://www.anandtech.com/…/showdoc.aspx?i=3435&…
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-21 00:49:41: The second reason why it is misleading is that the record of 35 days suggests that Skype is growing faster than it really is.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-20 22:46:13: The main reason why this statistic is misleading is that it is a measurement at one specific time of a weekday when the daily usage hits a peak. It does not measure Skype usage at other times of the day or on other days of the week. This is why so many blogs consistently get it wrong when they say that Skype is not growing exponentially. The fact is that the lows in weekday usage are climbing relative to the highs, and weekend usage is climbing relative to weekdays.

In other words, compared to say two years ago, Skype usage is fluctuating less wildly from its peak at 15-18 GMT to its low at 0-3 GMT. Slowly and belatedly Skype is becoming a core communication tool.
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-10-20 19:23:07: http://skypejournal.com/…/14-million-online-fastest-million-&hellip
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-20 18:44:08: As for region, the Americas have been growing faster than other regions for the past 2 months, but this is normal seasonal fluctuation. Europe's strong season for some reason is in the spring.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-20 17:57:03: Basically, Phil, it's like you said a few months ago. Cheap is the growth drug for Skype.
TheUberOverLord: 2008-10-20 17:56:33: Economy
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-10-20 17:56:12: is the bump in any given region?
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-10-20 17:55:55: wow. why are people flocking to skype? is there a world event? are people talking longer or to more people?
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-10-20 17:54:55: wow.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-20 17:54:18: Well, I guess I spoke too soon. 14 million was apparently reached today, just 6 hours after I said that it would probably not happen this week. My readings are on the quarter hour and it happened in between two of my readings. Anyway, it just goes to show how totally silly this measurement is.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-20 12:42:49: About a half hour ago, Skype reached 35 million "real users". The last million were added in 21 days.

As for peak concurrent users, the 13 million mark was reached on Sept. 22nd. The 14 million threshold could be reached this week, but probably not until next week or the week after.

All other measures suggest that Skype usage is growing a record pace. IOW, I now expect the pace of growth will surpass 2006.
Joerg Droege: 2008-10-18 16:47:41
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-18 02:50:41: New Subject: Has anyone ever tried (or succeeded) in using Skype as a secure VPN tunnel? See http://www.disruptivetelephony.com/…/skype_as_a_plat.html

Because of multiple login, wouldn't it require a second level of security with both encryption and a digital signature?
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-18 02:28:21: Oh, and since the landline is active 24/7, you could say that its presence is always there... as an active inbound connection from the world whether or not it is actually used.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-18 02:26:27: Minutes are overrated. I have a landline but hardly ever use it. It's there to look pretty, provide 911 service and give me a listing in the white pages.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-18 02:19:32: Aside from "real users" which is of course the greatest and most elegant statistic in the whole world?........ Well,

Something that would be comparable (on the same scale) as competitor services. I would like three categories:

1. paying customers..... users who have paid for communication services in the past year or who have outstanding credits.
2. Names that have NOT logged on for at least one year.
3. Everybody else
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-10-18 02:11:48: i like measures of behavior.

person-minutes of voice calls.

person-minutes of video calls.

accounts connected to the authentication service, another user, or a supernode in the last 60 days. in the last hour.

there's what i'd like and what skype provides.

so you make do.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-18 02:00:00: Hardly a day goes by without another glib attack on Skype for its method of measuring its size..... Skype Names as opposed to active users. When these same people refuse to define "active" or say how the statistics should be gathered, it seems hypocritical to me. What everyone should really do of course is rely upon the "real users" calculation.
Julian Bond: 2008-10-17 15:34:12: "it says I'm here when I'm not, and vice-versa" As I was walking up the stairs, I met a man that wasn't there. He wasn't there again today. I wish that man would go away.
Jim Courtney: 2008-10-17 14:57:03: A function of iotum's relevance engine that is on hold at the moment.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-17 14:31:10: good point
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-10-17 14:27:07: you'd lie less if you could share one presence to family, another to colleagues, etc.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-17 14:26:30: it says I'm here when I'm not, and vice-versa
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-17 14:25:28: I lie about my presence all the time
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-10-17 14:07:44: i think that's more that people don't trust presence signals. people lie since we have to give the same availability to everyone.
Julian Bond: 2008-10-17 06:38:55: My guess is that the average user doesn't even notice presence. Judging by the number of Skype conversations I have that start with "are you there?"
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 23:09:38: Yup. that's one way to measure.

Also, does presence have a conversational value?
TheUberOverLord: 2008-10-16 23:09:33: That's a hard one, compare Skype to PalTalk minus PSTN or Skype To Skype calls?
Phil Wolff | Skype Journal | Oakland, California: 2008-10-16 23:08:55: how about megabytes of traffic?
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 23:07:13: How does one fairly compare Skype to other carriers of conversation that don't have its combination of text, voice, and video? If you had to put text, voice and video on the same scale of conversational content, how would you measure them? What is the relative conversational density of text, voice and video? Is this a fair comparison?

Text = 1unit per page of text
Voice = 2 units per minute
Video = 3 units per minute
TheUberOverLord: 2008-10-16 22:12:14: Aware is fine, but taking over the vast majority of "Desktop Real Estate" by default, won't help accomplish that. I hope that compact mode becomes the default when 4.0 goes gold.
Jim Courtney: 2008-10-16 22:09:07: All this says is that nobody has listened to the theme of Jonathan Christenson's talk at IT Expo "VoIP is Dead". The real challenge for Skype is to become synonymous with real time conversations beyond simply voice. And this is one focus of the 4.0 beta program -- how to make users aware there is a lot more to conversations than simply voice.
Joerg Droege: 2008-10-16 21:09:55
TheUberOverLord: 2008-10-16 20:10:19: Thanks
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 20:09:20: Welcome Don.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 19:17:08: VOIP (non-skype) appears to be catching fire and maybe Skype has begun to lose its huge lead, but it is very difficult to measure these trends objectively and with certainty.
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 19:13:25: See this forecast:   "VoIP-Connected Households to Grow by 8.5 Million by 2011"   http://www.marketwatch.com/…/story.aspx?guid=%7BC04C5F78-540D-4F8D-A1AC-E0E8F9B56E36%7D&…

These are incredibly slippery numbers.   For example, is a "VOIP household" the same as a VOIP line?   Does a VOIP wireless cell phone count as a "VOIP household"? How does VOIP growth look when you add business users?   With these undefined standards, I have nothing to be ashamed of with my estimates of "real" or active Skype users.   At least I'm measuring something objectively.

Not that you can compare a "VOIP household" with a "real Skype user", but it may be interesting to note that at its present rate of growth, Skype will add about 4-5 million real users in the Americas over that same period, of which 3-4 million may be in the USA.   Compare that with the 8.5 million new USA "VOIP households" which are said to include Skype.
York, Dan: 2008-10-16 18:42:20: Hi
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 18:41:30: Welcome Dan. Yeah!
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 14:08:13: In the third quarter of 2008, Skype grew at a rate that was better than 2007, but below 2006. In terms of revenue, things are also holding up reasonably well.

The problem is that Skype continues to fail at turning registered users into real users. The retention ratio is dropping rapidly as this chart will indicate:
Hudson Barton: 2008-10-06 14:13:47: Looking at Skype growth today:

The much overused all time peak statistic has risen 600k in the past two weeks. Look to see it hit the 14 million in under 30 days. That would be a record pace of growth.

"Real users" meanwhile has risen 500k PER WEEK over the past month. That's a faster pace than even this spring, and by the end of December it may even be possible to surpass the record year of 2006. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Skype right now is growing at twice the rate of 2007.

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Go to bottom (older postings) The Skype Conversation Hudson Barton: 2009-01-03 13:52:07 How Depressed Are VOIP's Visionaries? http://aaytch.posterous.com/how-depressed-are-voips-vision Hudson Barton: 2009-01-02 14:34:23 http://is.gd/epgl Hudson Barton: 2009-01-02 13:28:56 Predictions for Skype growth in 2009: http://aaytch.posterous.com/ Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 12:55:20 Switching subjects... how about this amazing story? Palm raises $100 million from Elevation Partners. Gluttons for punishment? Incredible. http://blogs.mercurynews.com/…/palm-raises-another-100-million-fr&hellip/ Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 12:53:13 Absolutely. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-23 12:51:29 Talking about SSD, maybe this will change the market demand: http://tinyurl.com/7gfe48 Julian Bond: 2008-12-23 12:42:28 Personally, I think there is a market for a high powered netbook. But I'm not sure what the real compromises would be. Interesting that the market doesn't actually want SSD. Or a toy keyboard. But they do appear to want XP, small, light, cheap. Julian Bond: 2008-12-23 12:39:56 But right now Intel can't make 1.6Ghz single core Atoms fast enough. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 12:39:38 right. Julian Bond: 2008-12-23 12:39:28 There has been talk of a dual core Atom. Which sounds like that. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 12:38:51 I seem to recall that there is a new processor coming from Intel in 2009 that will be as powerful as a duo-core but with much better efficiency. Perhaps that is what Apple is waiting for. Can't remember the name of the processor. Julian Bond: 2008-12-23 12:34:16 "Jim Courtney says: I keep looking for netbooks with duo core processors - required for High Quality Video." It's just never enough is it! Maybe Apple will do it for you. So is there a markket for a high powered laptop in a 10.1" form factor. And no battery life? Jim Courtney: 2008-12-23 10:31:00 blackberry bold just named #1 influential biztech product of 2008 http://poprl.com/9X4 Jim Courtney: 2008-12-23 10:29:23 I keep looking for netbooks with duo core processors - required for High Quality Video. Julian Bond: 2008-12-23 08:08:10 Do all netbooks come with Skype? Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-23 04:31:57 oh, Canada! I keep forgetting it's not part of the US Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 01:39:42 I was just trying to count the factors that might have contributed to a very good year. Trying not to pay attention to the official reasons. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-23 01:37:04 ... and lets me know everytime she does a Skype interview. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-23 01:36:07 Sorry, Phil, she's on CTV in Canada. My wife watches it almost daily. Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-23 01:28:45 Oprah had an impact in the US, but not beyond. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-23 01:01:37 Could Oprah have been the cause of Skype's fast growth in 2008? Julian Bond: 2008-12-22 11:28:40 Internet comms do tend to route round breaks like the Undersea cable problem. But latency can go up dramatically. I'd expect skype chat to get through eventually, but skype voice might be unusable Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-21 16:24:37 however i think pat was just looking at the gross popularity of the brands. and skype is a mainstream brand the public knows. the rest are niche specialty brands. Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-21 16:23:26 when you're looking at web site popularity, jajah's stats are misleading. 90 percent of their business is OEM/white label. so you'd have to throw in yahoo messenger etc. i've no idea how website popularity correllates with software/service popularity. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-21 13:10:43 How can someone post a story that proposes to answer the question "How popular is Skype, really", and then offer Alexa rankings for support for the point of view. http://patphelan.net/how-popular-is-skype-really/ At the very least, it is an over-hyped title. He hasn't even answered his own question. His only conclusion is that he is even more stumped than before he asked it. Bill Campbell: 2008-12-21 05:10:06 Hudson, can they see the history Hudson Barton: 2008-12-21 03:12:57 The topic of this discussion is above. If you are interested, please don't leave. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-21 03:11:41 hello back Witek Bahr: 2008-12-20 22:15:47 hello Hudson Barton: 2008-12-20 14:05:04 Mediterranean undersea cables get cut. Communications in Asia and Middle East severely "disrupted". http://www.panarmenian.net/…/?nid=28085 I assume the Skype cloud will bypass these troubles. jbond-eeepc: 2008-12-16 14:30:58 hmm. that one worked. BTW this is Julian.bond testing 4b3 on an eeepsie Hudson Barton: 2008-12-16 14:15:45 Welcome eeepc !! Jim Courtney: 2008-12-16 13:27:02 You should post this in the Skype 4.x discussion group. Reinforces Dan's post last week. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-16 12:58:24 Businesses double adoption of Macs. http://www.macnn.com/…/mac.business.integration/ As the article says, there has been a 2x increase, in just the past 8 months, of businesses that allow Macs to populate their internal networks. It seems to me that the switchover from PC to Mac has come to a place where the pace is quickening. This has implications for anyone supporting both platforms... like Skype. Julian Bond: 2008-12-15 15:39:32 It's also possible that XP had throttled it because it was running on batteries. I haven't got to the bottom of how or if it does that in Windows yet. Julian Bond: 2008-12-15 15:38:39 Had I booted the eeePC into Linux it might have worked better. Julian Bond: 2008-12-15 15:37:57 same old, same old. The device you can buy now is never quite good enough. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-15 15:36:47 I'm waiting for the NetBook that has dual core processor; then a NetBook can become a light, small footprint, true multi-conversation device using Skype's full feature set. Julian Bond: 2008-12-15 15:21:46 I bought (or had bought for me) the eeePC just a little too early in May this year. They still had a 900Mhz Celeron then. Since then the netbooks have all evolved up to 1.6Ghz Atom. I think that's still a single core cpu and not that powerful by 2008 standards. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-15 15:06:33 A key question here: does the eeePC have a dual core processor. This has been the limitation of some netbooks. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-15 12:50:39 Yes. When I called you the audio and the video was crap. Unfortunately, I did not have a tech window booted, so I can't provide any further diagnosis. Sidebar: I suspect with a decent computer, a skype account, a good webcam and the ability to steal a wifi connection (in a city perhaps), that non-professional on-location video journalists can compete with professionals. The key unknown is the reliability and capability of broadband. Julian Bond: 2008-12-15 12:24:35 I was at a demo in London (against a Motorcycle Parking Tax) and had my eeePC with me. It's a 900 Celeron running XP. I thought I'd try a Skype video call using "found" wifi. It didn't really work. First I made the mistake of using my normal Skype account and the machine took a good 25 minutes to catch up after signing in. Second I think the hardware is really marginal for XP, Skype 3.8 4Win and video. And third, I know the built in microphone is rubbish. Oh well. I also had a megaphone with me that has been modified to accept an input jack. One of these days I really want to do a remote skype call to a public event and into the Megaphone. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-15 12:00:29 Hudson Barton: 2008-12-14 11:47:17 tried to call you. Perhaps you are already on a call. Julian Bond: 2008-12-14 11:44:13 give me a call now Julian Bond: 2008-12-14 11:36:36 anyone with a camera online? Hudson Barton: 2008-12-08 18:14:35 No opinion, really. But if people are not online then they won't be using their minutes. Basically Phil, what I think happens at this time of year is a huge decrease in at-work presence that is partially offset by relative strength in at-home presence. The shifts will be no different than what we see on weekends during the rest of the year. I do measure the weekday/weekend delta carefully, and I've written about it before. Skype does not give us minutes correleted to time of day, day of week, or season of year. If there were a surge in minutes associated with Christmas, how would any of us know it? Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-08 18:00:32 don't you expect minutes-consumed to go up for end-of-year? Hudson Barton: 2008-12-08 15:35:24 Notwithstanding stupid reports like this, the holidays are not a time of Skype growth. See http://voip-phone-systems.tmcnet.com/…/46919-voip-shortens-distance-betwe&hellip Growth has slowed dramatically in the past week and it will stall completely very soon. Expect it to come back strongly in the first week of the new year. Neil: 2008-12-08 02:30:44 kinda like Xerox Hudson Barton: 2008-12-08 02:21:15 I did it! I just said to someone "I'd rather discuss this on the skype." It seemed quite natural. Now for me the name of the device is the same as the verb for what you do with the device, which is the same as the name of the software that powers the device as well as the name of the company that makes the software. No more silly phrases like "skype phone", or "skype device", or "skype instant messenger" York, Dan: 2008-12-05 19:36:43 Julian - you can always try http://www.bugmenot.com for login credentials for the site. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-05 19:08:28 Just to feed on Hudson's privacy concerns: smile when you go through airport security: http://www.itbusiness.ca/…/News.asp?id=51059 Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-05 18:43:00 ye olde rubber duck for your identity Julian Bond: 2008-12-05 18:41:43 I should do it really. As the FT is a good source. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-05 18:35:52 I can confirm it's only a log-in wall. Just uncheck all the email requests as you register. Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-05 18:16:17 it's a log-in wall, really. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-05 17:56:40 not a pay wall for me. So FT charges Brits Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-05 17:17:18 http://csc.com.au/…/333.shtml for the source materials Julian Bond: 2008-12-05 17:03:01 Sorry, but I don't read articles behind a pay wall... Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-05 16:13:52 i don't think it will end, just be so expensive as to be beyond the reach of most mortals Hudson Barton: 2008-12-05 13:35:20 Lively imaginations: 'Privacy will end in 2013' ... gleanings from CSC Digital Disruptions Report http://www.ft.com/…/acd2c66c-c0da-11dd-b0a8-000077b076&hellip?nclick_check=1 Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-04 17:47:59 vonj or vong Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-04 17:45:40 spyke Julian Bond: 2008-12-04 17:33:00 Or a JeeJah Julian Bond: 2008-12-04 17:31:36 Like, a, "Skypple" Julian Bond: 2008-12-04 17:31:13 I think a dedicated Skype phone needs a suitably SciFi name like something out of a Phil Dick novel. Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-04 16:37:47 ooh. interesting. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-04 13:58:37 Meaning of the word "Skype" 1. It is the name of a company (subsidiary of eBay) 2. It is the name of a software program 3. It is a verb meaning to communicate with someone using the software program of the same name. Proposed new meaning: the name of a dedicated communication device that uses the software of the same name. This would eliminate awkward expressions like "skype phone". Instead, we would call this device simply a "Skype", just like we call a telephoning device a "Phone". Hudson Barton: 2008-12-04 13:51:30 Hudson Barton: 2008-12-04 13:35:44 Off topic. ECommerce is having a really good Xmas season. Focus on eBay and Amazon http://tinyurl.com/63gfhe. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:42:57 More from the Press Release: Despite the impact of later product launch dates and general economic weakness in the United States, customer response to the new BlackBerry products launched this quarter has been exceptional and RIM has experienced particularly strong momentum in recent weeks. Daily net subscriber account additions reached a record level on the day the BlackBerry Storm launched in the United States and RIM achieved a record number of weekly net subscriber account additions during the last week of the third quarter. The strong demand for new products has continued into Q4 and RIM is working closely with its partners to deliver sufficient product to take advantage of the growth opportunity in Q4 and beyond. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:41:53 Biggest problem was lack of Bold and Storm in U.S. until November. The impact of the current economy on the C$/US$ was not a help either (C$ dropped about 20% during the quarter due to high demand for US$ everywhere as investments cash out.) Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:40:11 Based on preliminary financial data, RIM expects revenue for the third quarter to be in the range of $2.75-$2.78 billion. Preliminary revenue is lower than the previously forecasted revenue range of $2.95-$3.10 billion but is approximately 65% higher than revenue in the same quarter of last year. Approximately one third of the difference between forecasted and preliminary revenue is expected to be a result of the depreciation of certain foreign currencies relative to the U.S. dollar in the quarter. The remaining difference is primarily due to lower than estimated unit shipments of existing products, which RIM believes is a reflection of general economic weakness in the United States and shifts in product launch dates within the quarter. Subject to final review, gross margin in the quarter is expected to be between 45-46%. The lower than expected gross margin is due primarily to product revenue mix and foreign exchange impacts within the quarter. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:40:07 From RIM's press release yesterday: Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 14:34:47 I have no idea where you see such activity. The rate of increase has been strong since Labor Day. If anything, it begins to drop off after Thanksgiving, goes dead the week before Christmas, and then picks up strongly in the first week of the new year. Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-03 14:23:29 not causal, but skype activity - via simultaneous online stats - seems to rise sharply in the last 45 days of the year. i can only guess at three causes: family coordination of holiday visits (starting early because of the US Thanksgiving), end-of-year selling efforts, and college students coming home and bringing their families online. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:21:54 But, on the security front, Certicom, a Mississauga-based company, has been supplying cryptographic technology for BlackBerry since day 1. RIM obviously has not run out of cash: http://tinyurl.com/5n3wmz Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 14:19:44 Just found that RIM reduced guidance for their third quarter yesterday. Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-03 14:19:15 I agree about skype downloads and the economy. phone bills are one of our largest discretionary spends and newspaper columns have been suggesting skype as an alternative. skype's US PR machine is pushing that hard. Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-12-03 14:16:55 RIM also has government enterprise going for it. Barack Obama used one on the campaign trail and they are slowly weaning him off it since, once president, all his personal emails become public record. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 12:53:35 Sidebar: Jean Mercier at http://www.skypenumerology.blogspot.com/ is saying that Skype downloads are rising very fast. I can confirm that and my guess is that it is related to the economy, but it could be just a statistical blip. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 12:51:12 I guess the rumor is that Palm's financial angel (Elevation ?) has run out of patience, and maybe of money. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 12:48:30 With a 2.5:1 Current ratio, RIM is also in good shape. They did some good strategic financings a few years ago that raised significant funds. At one point Palm's CEO was up here right after a RIM financing -- she had about $100MM in cash while RIM was close to $1B as a result of the financing. That was my first indication that Palm was in trouble... Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 12:44:46 How do these companies compare in terms of cash reserves and debt/equity ratios? Apple is in good shape here, and Palm is clearly in bad shape, but what about the others? Let's hypothesize the worse.... very long and very deep depression. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 12:41:02 RIM will be reporting their 2009 third quarter (ending Nov. 30) earnings December 18. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 12:37:46 The smartphone survivors will be Apple, RIM and Nokia. Cisco is apparently eating up the market for VoIP fixed line phonesets in business, according to one report I saw. Qualcomm will continue to collect royalties. Motorola, Nortel and Palm are the big question marks. Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 12:35:08 Q-2009 is going to be the real test of where the smartphone market is going. Post-Christmas, and it will be the first full quarter of iPhone, Bold and Storm. Too bad Nokia's N97 won't be out until June (29 according to one tweet I saw). Jim Courtney: 2008-12-03 12:32:14 RIM's big problem is the loss of their "embedded" customers with all the downsizing and shutdowns of financial institutions. That was the market that launched them; it's a huge upgrade market loss. They have been quietly working the enterprise market in coordination with all their launches. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 12:26:17 Looks like RIM is under pressure. They say it's a combination of value of the dollar, the general economy, and Apple. PALM is of course having an even harder time. This morning's market report: "Research In Motion (RIMM: 37.32, -2.48, -6.2%) fell 4% in Frankfurt as the maker of BlackBerry phones cut its third-quarter earnings and revenue goals." Does anyone have opinions on the ability of various members of the mobile telecom group to survive a worldwide economic depression? Nokia? Palm? Motorola? Cisco? Ericsson? Nortel? Qualcomm? Alcatel? ... and now I suppose Apple? I suspect they will all lose money in the days ahead. The question is which of them cannot afford to lose money. Hudson Barton: 2008-12-03 08:56:49 nice thing about a published chat... people tend to self-regulate. Neil: 2008-12-03 08:15:01 the 2 participants removed their own private chat from here Julian Bond: 2008-12-03 08:10:23 wonders what happened there overnight (will this message be removed?) wildbel: 2008-12-03 01:05:48 sorry Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 01:05:26 wildbel: 2008-12-03 01:03:31 Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 01:02:52 wildbel: 2008-12-03 01:02:31 wildbel: 2008-12-03 01:02:01 wildbel: 2008-12-03 01:01:58 Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 01:00:37 wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:59:37 that was meano wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:59:36 Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 00:59:03 wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:58:27 wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:58:21 I AGREE! Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 00:58:08 wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:57:42 Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 00:53:57 wildbel: 2008-12-03 00:45:50 don't mind them, people are here Neil: 2008-12-03 00:14:10 whatever Tane Bufton: 2008-12-03 00:13:43 Chickens? Bill Campbell: 2008-12-03 00:13:40 Neil: 2008-12-03 00:13:24 no one here but us chickens Tane Bufton: 2008-12-03 00:12:34 anyone there? Tane Bufton: 2008-12-03 00:10:46 hi Вадим Супоницкий: 2008-11-27 17:30:50 sorry for my English Вадим Супоницкий: 2008-11-27 17:30:38 Bill do you have web cam? How we can have video talk start? Bill Campbell: 2008-11-27 17:29:51 I can Вадим Супоницкий: 2008-11-27 17:29:31 Who can help me test my skype video? Вадим Супоницкий: 2008-11-27 17:29:09 hello! Bill Campbell: 2008-11-27 00:03:20 Kelly this link goes with this Chat http://glimfeather.com/…/garnet_stone-3.html Bill Campbell: 2008-11-27 00:02:30 Ping for Kelly Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-11-24 16:52:38 sounds right. Hudson Barton: 2008-11-24 16:42:08 The trough occurs after the Asian peak and before the Europen day gets rolling) . By looking at the time at which the trough occurs I could determine whether the cause is a broadening of the Asian curve. I have not done that study, but I strongly suspect it is mostly due to a broadening of the American and European curves.... folks in industrialized countries are staying in the Skype cloud around the clock with either computers, mobile devices or proxies such as iScoot. Hudson Barton: 2008-11-24 16:23:54 In terms of registrations, it may be true, but not in terms of usage Hudson Barton: 2008-11-24 16:22:51 Everybody keeps saying that, but there is no evidence for it (big Asian growth) Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-11-24 16:17:14 Could the growth in the bottom of the trough be from growth outside the Americas? That activity in the Chinese and Indian time zones is growing rapidly? Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-11-24 16:15:12 That's a gem of analysis, Hudson. Great work. Hudson Barton: 2008-11-24 13:31:12 The other day in the Skype 4.x public chat, I said: "Skype should be interested in usage, not in "users". "Real user" is a measure of usage. The comment was a partial answer to the question "How much of that growth was from "conversion" or changing online patterns of existing users, and how much of it is new users". Now here is a geeky analysis that the raw "real users" statistic fails to fully capture. In 2005 and 2006, the amplitude of the daily usage wave was growing. That is to say, the daily highs were growing relative to the lows (after discounting regional distortions)... 10% per annum faster in fact. Skype usage was increasing in the middle of the workday relative to off-peak hours. People were not using Skype as a general communication utility for inbound and outbound calling and presence. Rather, they appear to have been using Skype for special work-related purposes like outbound long distance calling to save money. In 2007 and 2008, trend reversed. The amplitude of the daily usage wave started shrinking. The lows have been growing relative to the highs... 20% per annum faster. It appears that people began using Skype for normal, essential and basic communication, staying online for longer stretches of time or even around the clock in order to receive inbound calls and to mark their presence. Although we don't know the precise motivation for this change in behavior, it could be related to the expanding availability of unmetered broadband. Electricity is the only variable cost associated with keeping your Skype device running 24/7. Today, the peak of the Skype usage wave is at about 14.5 million and the trough is about 7.2 million (out of 36 million total "real users"). The comparable graph for a "phone" company (or a VOIP operator like Vonage) would show a usage wave with an amplitude of zero; all users are by definition online all the time. If Skype's usage trends continue, it will begin to look more and more like an indispensible communications utility and less like a mere disruption to the communications status quo. Hudson Barton: 2008-11-13 15:23:46 For those people using "Twitter4Skype", yesterday was a down day. The server is back up again, but to get your twitter feeds running, you may need to reconnect with the server. To do that type "#on" in your Twitter4Skype chat. Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-11-06 06:32:44 I'd be interested in logic that required completed profiles from strangers when i'm in skype me mode. Jim Courtney: 2008-11-05 17:39:16 But your incentive to complete a profile should be considered, especially to have a mobile number for SMS and to have some idea of at least the country. In fact, maybe there could be an additional "privacy" option to block all contacts who have not completed at least two pieces of profile information, one of which must be Country. Neil: 2008-11-05 17:30:01 there have been complaints on the forum about SkypeMe having been dropped, but I don't think they will get anywhere Hudson Barton: 2008-11-05 17:18:25 Yes. I should have mentioned the change in 4.x for Windows. One of my purposes in this experiment was to see whether SkypeMe would be missed. Answer: not at all. I hope it gets removed in the Mac and Linux version as well. Neil: 2008-11-05 17:05:37 I don't think it was there for 4b1 either Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-11-05 16:55:42 Skype Me is no longer a presence option in 4b2. Julian Bond: 2008-11-05 16:54:22 "Skype should create incentives for people to fill out their profiles" ++ Hudson Barton: 2008-11-05 13:40:18 Yesterday I tried for the first time to run in SkypeME mode. So for about 24 hours, I removed all my privacy barriers to see what might happen. Let's just say I won't be doing it again, at least not while the Skype profile can be filled out optionally. I had expected to receive an influx of unwanted calls from unknown persons. That did not happen. I got only one unwanted call from an unknown (and zero wanted calls from unknowns). The bigger problem was unwanted IMs. Before yesterday, I had always set my IMs to receive from unknowns. As a result I had typically received two or three unwanted buddy requests per week (which I then blocked). This is an acceptable rate for me. It might not be acceptable for most people. Yesterday while running in "SkypeME" mode, I received almost a dozen; sex solicitations, money solicitations, and an assortment of lonely goofballs who just wanted someone to talk to. Without exception they did not have their profiles filled out. I had to block every one. Conclusions: 1. "SkypeME" mode and running Skype without any privacy measures is redundant. There is no reason for a normal person to go into SkypeME mode, and if there were then it is just as easy to adjust one's preferences. The "SkypeME" flag is an invitation to disreputable Skype usage. 2. Skype should create incentives for people to fill out their profiles and should create a flag for Skype names that contain verified profile information, especially a full name. Hudson Barton: 2008-11-05 12:38:06 Two new records, each more significant than "peak users": 1. Skype added 1 million new "real users" in the past 15 days, now exceeding 36 million. That's not quite as fast as in January when it took just a week to go from 28 million to 29 million. http://glimfeather.com/…/RealUsers.htm 2. Based on year-to-date numbers, Skype is probably set to grow faster in 2008 than it did in 2006 when it added new users at a rate of 862,712 per month. There no longer remains any doubt that Skype is NOT slowing down. 2008 YTD: 870,318 new "real users" per month. Ho Hum. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-23 18:06:52 Save the World. Buy a Mac. http://www.anandtech.com/…/showdoc.aspx?i=3435&… Hudson Barton: 2008-10-21 00:49:41 The second reason why it is misleading is that the record of 35 days suggests that Skype is growing faster than it really is. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-20 22:46:13 The main reason why this statistic is misleading is that it is a measurement at one specific time of a weekday when the daily usage hits a peak. It does not measure Skype usage at other times of the day or on other days of the week. This is why so many blogs consistently get it wrong when they say that Skype is not growing exponentially. The fact is that the lows in weekday usage are climbing relative to the highs, and weekend usage is climbing relative to weekdays. In other words, compared to say two years ago, Skype usage is fluctuating less wildly from its peak at 15-18 GMT to its low at 0-3 GMT. Slowly and belatedly Skype is becoming a core communication tool. Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-10-20 19:23:07 http://skypejournal.com/…/14-million-online-fastest-million-&hellip Hudson Barton: 2008-10-20 18:44:08 As for region, the Americas have been growing faster than other regions for the past 2 months, but this is normal seasonal fluctuation. Europe's strong season for some reason is in the spring. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-20 17:57:03 Basically, Phil, it's like you said a few months ago. Cheap is the growth drug for Skype. TheUberOverLord: 2008-10-20 17:56:33 Economy Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-10-20 17:56:12 is the bump in any given region? Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-10-20 17:55:55 wow. why are people flocking to skype? is there a world event? are people talking longer or to more people? Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-10-20 17:54:55 wow. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-20 17:54:18 Well, I guess I spoke too soon. 14 million was apparently reached today, just 6 hours after I said that it would probably not happen this week. My readings are on the quarter hour and it happened in between two of my readings. Anyway, it just goes to show how totally silly this measurement is. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-20 12:42:49 About a half hour ago, Skype reached 35 million "real users". The last million were added in 21 days. As for peak concurrent users, the 13 million mark was reached on Sept. 22nd. The 14 million threshold could be reached this week, but probably not until next week or the week after. All other measures suggest that Skype usage is growing a record pace. IOW, I now expect the pace of growth will surpass 2006. Joerg Droege: 2008-10-18 16:47:41 Hudson Barton: 2008-10-18 02:50:41 New Subject: Has anyone ever tried (or succeeded) in using Skype as a secure VPN tunnel? See http://www.disruptivetelephony.com/…/skype_as_a_plat.html Because of multiple login, wouldn't it require a second level of security with both encryption and a digital signature? Hudson Barton: 2008-10-18 02:28:21 Oh, and since the landline is active 24/7, you could say that its presence is always there... as an active inbound connection from the world whether or not it is actually used. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-18 02:26:27 Minutes are overrated. I have a landline but hardly ever use it. It's there to look pretty, provide 911 service and give me a listing in the white pages. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-18 02:19:32 Aside from "real users" which is of course the greatest and most elegant statistic in the whole world?........ Well, Something that would be comparable (on the same scale) as competitor services. I would like three categories: 1. paying customers..... users who have paid for communication services in the past year or who have outstanding credits. 2. Names that have NOT logged on for at least one year. 3. Everybody else Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-10-18 02:11:48 i like measures of behavior. person-minutes of voice calls. person-minutes of video calls. accounts connected to the authentication service, another user, or a supernode in the last 60 days. in the last hour. there's what i'd like and what skype provides. so you make do. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-18 02:00:00 Hardly a day goes by without another glib attack on Skype for its method of measuring its size..... Skype Names as opposed to active users. When these same people refuse to define "active" or say how the statistics should be gathered, it seems hypocritical to me. What everyone should really do of course is rely upon the "real users" calculation. Julian Bond: 2008-10-17 15:34:12 "it says I'm here when I'm not, and vice-versa" As I was walking up the stairs, I met a man that wasn't there. He wasn't there again today. I wish that man would go away. Jim Courtney: 2008-10-17 14:57:03 A function of iotum's relevance engine that is on hold at the moment. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-17 14:31:10 good point Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-10-17 14:27:07 you'd lie less if you could share one presence to family, another to colleagues, etc. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-17 14:26:30 it says I'm here when I'm not, and vice-versa Hudson Barton: 2008-10-17 14:25:28 I lie about my presence all the time Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-10-17 14:07:44 i think that's more that people don't trust presence signals. people lie since we have to give the same availability to everyone. Julian Bond: 2008-10-17 06:38:55 My guess is that the average user doesn't even notice presence. Judging by the number of Skype conversations I have that start with "are you there?" Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 23:09:38 Yup. that's one way to measure. Also, does presence have a conversational value? TheUberOverLord: 2008-10-16 23:09:33 That's a hard one, compare Skype to PalTalk minus PSTN or Skype To Skype calls? Phil Wolff \| Skype Journal \| Oakland, California: 2008-10-16 23:08:55 how about megabytes of traffic? Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 23:07:13 How does one fairly compare Skype to other carriers of conversation that don't have its combination of text, voice, and video? If you had to put text, voice and video on the same scale of conversational content, how would you measure them? What is the relative conversational density of text, voice and video? Is this a fair comparison? Text = 1unit per page of text Voice = 2 units per minute Video = 3 units per minute TheUberOverLord: 2008-10-16 22:12:14 Aware is fine, but taking over the vast majority of "Desktop Real Estate" by default, won't help accomplish that. I hope that compact mode becomes the default when 4.0 goes gold. Jim Courtney: 2008-10-16 22:09:07 All this says is that nobody has listened to the theme of Jonathan Christenson's talk at IT Expo "VoIP is Dead". The real challenge for Skype is to become synonymous with real time conversations beyond simply voice. And this is one focus of the 4.0 beta program -- how to make users aware there is a lot more to conversations than simply voice. Joerg Droege: 2008-10-16 21:09:55 TheUberOverLord: 2008-10-16 20:10:19 Thanks Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 20:09:20 Welcome Don. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 19:17:08 VOIP (non-skype) appears to be catching fire and maybe Skype has begun to lose its huge lead, but it is very difficult to measure these trends objectively and with certainty. Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 19:13:25 See this forecast: "VoIP-Connected Households to Grow by 8.5 Million by 2011" http://www.marketwatch.com/…/story.aspx?guid=%7BC04C5F78-540D-4F8D-A1AC-E0E8F9B56E36%7D&… These are incredibly slippery numbers. For example, is a "VOIP household" the same as a VOIP line? Does a VOIP wireless cell phone count as a "VOIP household"? How does VOIP growth look when you add business users? With these undefined standards, I have nothing to be ashamed of with my estimates of "real" or active Skype users. At least I'm measuring something objectively. Not that you can compare a "VOIP household" with a "real Skype user", but it may be interesting to note that at its present rate of growth, Skype will add about 4-5 million real users in the Americas over that same period, of which 3-4 million may be in the USA. Compare that with the 8.5 million new USA "VOIP households" which are said to include Skype. York, Dan: 2008-10-16 18:42:20 Hi Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 18:41:30 Welcome Dan. Yeah! Hudson Barton: 2008-10-16 14:08:13 In the third quarter of 2008, Skype grew at a rate that was better than 2007, but below 2006. In terms of revenue, things are also holding up reasonably well. The problem is that Skype continues to fail at turning registered users into real users. The retention ratio is dropping rapidly as this chart will indicate: Hudson Barton: 2008-10-06 14:13:47 Looking at Skype growth today: The much overused all time peak statistic has risen 600k in the past two weeks. Look to see it hit the 14 million in under 30 days. That would be a record pace of growth. "Real users" meanwhile has risen 500k PER WEEK over the past month. That's a faster pace than even this spring, and by the end of December it may even be possible to surpass the record year of 2006. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Skype right now is growing at twice the rate of 2007. Go to top (recent postings)	Web display of this Skype conversation by Chat Publisher™ All responsibility and rights in respect to content belong to the chat participants <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com">Yahoo! Finance</a><br/>

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