IP communication and mobile computing
| Home Page: |
|
Public Skype chat on Cyber Kinetic IP news :
Journal of Cyber Kinetic IP news
Proof that Skype is struggling
By definition, increases in "real users" (usage) over the past three years is composed of new registered user and of existing customers deciding to use Skype more than they had in the past. It is more of the latter than the former. Existing Skype users are finding ways to incorporate Skype into their communication routine. Revenue per user is in a steady upward trend, going from less than $9.00 per real user per year in 2005 to more than $16 per real user per year currently. It indicates greater use of SkypeIN and SkypeOUT. Also, video usage is in a steady upward trend (0% in 2005 and 28% of Skype/Skype calls today).
Because we know that increasing "real users" are coming from greater usage by existing Skype users, we know that new "real users" coming into the Skype cloud through the registration process is minimal. The hypothesis therefore is that while Skype is satisfying existing customers and enticing them into higher usage, it is not satisfying new customers. They are discarding their downloaded Skype software at a large and increasing rate.
Intuitively, we know that this is true because newbie Skype users have become famous for expressing dissatisfaction with Skype's support services. We have more direct evidence when we look at the Skype usage rate (ratio of "real users" to registered users). The usage rate has been dropping steadily since eBay bought Skype:
| Report Date | Real Users | Skype 'Names" | Usage Rate |
| January-06 | 11,008,823 | 74,700,000 | 14.74% |
| April-06 | 15,441,003 | 94,600,000 | 16.32% |
| July-06 | 16,583,302 | 113,000,000 | 14.68% |
| October-06 | 18,812,315 | 136,000,000 | 13.83% |
| January-07 | 21,361,366 | 171,000,000 | 12.49% |
| April-07 | 23,486,370 | 196,000,000 | 11.98% |
| July-07 | 23,946,787 | 220,000,000 | 10.88% |
| October-07 | 24,187,325 | 246,000,000 | 9.83% |
| January-08 | 27,202,646 | 276,000,000 | 9.86% |
| April-08 | 31,741,318 | 309,000,000 | 10.27% |
| July-08 | 32,225,437 | 338,000,000 | 9.53% |
So what's going on here?
- The number of registered users continues to expand at a rapid pace.
- The core of Skype's user base is becoming more deeply committed to Skype services. They have discovered in its feature set a communications "platform" that exceeds that of its competitors. That core is driving up Skype's revenues and is giving Skype hope that it can someday grow into a telecommunications giant.
- The successes in #1 and #2 disguise the fact that Skype's real user base (usage) is not expanding at a rate commensurate with the overall user base. The usage rate was over 15% when eBay bought Skype, is now 10%, and it may soon become 5%. A smaller and smaller percentage of Skype users are committed to Skype as a communication platform. The rest are drifting away as Skype fails to capture their attention.