January 17, 2007... Is Skype at saturation point on PC's?

My friend Jean Mercier at Skypenumerology complains that I unfairly criticized his interpretation of what a "Skype Director" had recently said: "We're nearing saturation on PCs".

Basically, this Skype official is either wrong, or Jean (and the media sources he is reading) have taken his comments out of context. Most likely, what the official was trying to say is that the future growth of Skype (usage or "real users") is going to come increasingly from non-PC devices. On this I agree.

In the beginning (2004 to the present), Skype usage was oriented towards IM, Skype/Skype calling, and international SkypeOUT from PC's. As such, Skype has not been anyone's primary telephony carrier, but only an occasional and supplemental communications device. That is changing.

Because of new hardware, improved software and expanded broadband, Skype is becoming a core (preferred) means of communication and it is moving off computers that are online occasionally onto computers, WIFI devices and mobile "phones" that are online constantly. The average daily usage for a Skype user may someday get to 24 hours, but right now it is a small fraction of that. Even if the number of registered Skype users and downloads were to be frozen, usage (or "real users") would continue to grow. Contrary to what Jean Mercier says, "Downloads" and hits on the Skype.com website have long since ceased to be related to Skype growth.

So what the Skype official meant to say is that the company is concentrating not on PC's that are online sporadically but on dedicated communication devices that are online constantly. In my opinion, that is a perfectly rational strategy that demonstrates his confidence in the platform's future.