January 17, 2008... Skype Growth in Asia

Some analysts have contended that Skype's growth is coming from Asia more than from America or Europe. Not true.

The notion comes from an assertion by Skype (unverified) that Asian growth is very strong in terms of registered Skype names. If growth is measured in this way, one is left with the impression that "rich" countries are falling behind LDC's, but the data is simply false.

The only valid measurement of growth is Skype usage ("real users"). Even as registered users in LDC's are (sic) outpacing "rich" countries, usage growth is not faster. The cause might be traced to the lack of fast affordable broadband and affordable power in these countries. In certain cases it might also be attributed to discrimination by oppressive regimes who fear Skype as both a competitor to their telephony monopolies, and as a threat to their political hegemony because of encryption. In the long run, the anti-Skype policies of these regimes can not survive and their technological infrastructures will catch up to "the West", so it seems to me that we should consider superior growth of user names in Asia (assuming it is even true) as an indicator of superior future growth, but not of superior current growth.